In a record-breaking development, India has just endured its hottest October since 1901, with the average temperature reaching 26.92 degrees Celsius—1.23 degrees higher than the typical October average. According to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this month’s heat is expected to extend well into November, posing concerns for many regions already impacted by unseasonably warm weather.
IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra attributes this unusual warmth to several factors, including a lack of western disturbances, which usually bring cooler air. Instead, regions across India experienced persistent easterly winds caused by active low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. “In northwestern India, north-westerly winds are typically required for temperatures to drop. However, this October, the monsoonal flow continued, limiting any fall in temperature,” explained Mohapatra.
In October, the minimum temperatures also remained high, with an average of 21.85 degrees Celsius, surpassing the usual average of 20.01 degrees. Northwest India, in particular, saw a noticeable increase in temperatures, which were recorded as 2-5 degrees warmer than average. While a gradual cooling trend is expected to commence in mid-November, residents should prepare for warmer-than-normal conditions in the first half of the month.
Absence of Western Disturbances and Impact of El Nino
The lack of cooling western disturbances typically observed in October has been crucial to the prolonged heat. These disturbances, which are often followed by rain and cooler winds, were missing, making it difficult for the temperature to drop. Mohapatra noted that the extended presence of easterly winds, usually absent during this time, contributed to the warm October. These easterlies were a result of active low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, further intensifying temperatures.
Meteorologists are also keeping an eye on global climate patterns. India’s hot October may be partly due to neutral El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino, which influences global weather patterns, often leads to warmer temperatures in India. However, forecasts suggest that La Nina—El Nino’s cooler counterpart—might gradually take hold by December, which could bring colder conditions during the winter months. “Global forecasting on El Nino has been complex this year, but we anticipate a gradual cooling trend as La Nina strengthens, which may result in a chillier winter,” the IMD Director General added.
Heavy Rains Predicted for Southern India in November
While northern and central India face warmer temperatures, southern regions are preparing for a wet November. The northeast monsoon is set to bring heavy rains, particularly to Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and Karnataka. The IMD has issued an orange alert in some areas, signaling the potential for intense rainfall and local flooding. In contrast, rainfall in northwestern India is predicted to be below average, potentially adding to the unseasonal heat in those regions.
What’s Ahead for November and December?
Typically, cooler weather hints begin to appear by November, with a noticeable chill developing as winter approaches in December and January. This year, however, the prolonged warmth may delay the onset of winter. IMD expects that November will continue to feel warmer than average, especially in northwestern plains. Residents in Delhi-NCR and other regions may experience an unusual start to winter, with forecasts suggesting that a true drop in temperature will begin only later in November.
Health Implications and the Need for Adaptation
Prolonged warm weather can pose risks to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with respiratory issues. Health experts suggest that people take precautions, such as staying hydrated and avoiding prolonged exposure to heat. Additionally, the IMD has advised state and local authorities to be prepared for fluctuating weather patterns, which can affect agriculture and water resources.
As La Nina’s potential arrival in December hints at colder winds from the Hindu Kush, IMD remains optimistic about a traditional Indian winter eventually setting in. However, this October’s record-breaking heat serves as a reminder of climate variability and the pressing need for climate resilience measures to adapt to unexpected weather patterns.
